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Dr Wynn and Dr Masson’s research has shown that stories
of a devastating 'mega-tsunami' some 300 feet high and travelling
at 500 mph are greatly exaggerated, and that reports suggesting
tens of millions of people could be killed have little basis
in reality.
"The Canary Islands are volcanic islands that collapse
at regular intervals in geological time. However, on a human
scale they are extremely rare events, and on average major
landslides on the flanks of the Canary Islands occur only
once every 100,000 years. At SOC we have studied previous
Canary Islands landslides to understand how they move, and
have found evidence to suggest that the landslides may actually
break up and fall into the sea in several stages." says
Dr Wynn.
"In terms of tsunami-generating potential, a multi-stage
landslide would certainly not generate tsunamis capable of
damaging the coastlines of southern England or the American
east coast, although they may have an impact on nearby Canary
Islands. By analogy, if you drop a brick into a bath you get
a big splash, but if you break that brick up into several
pieces and drop them in one by one, you get several small
splashes."
Dr Wynn added, "The mega-tsunami scenario currently
being aired in the media is a hypothetical 'worst case', and
is largely based upon speculative computer models of landslide
motion and tsunami generation. In contrast, our work involves
study of actual landslide deposits."
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Courtesy of Drs Wynn and Masson
3D image which shows the island of El Hierro in the
western Canary Islands. Areas above sea-level are shown
with brown tones. The large scar clearly visible on
the island flank is the result of the most recent landslide
that occurred about 15,000 years ago. By studying how
this and other past landslides moved, we can better
predict the potential hazard from any future landslide.’ |
In October 2004 Dr Wynn and Dr Masson will lead a new UK
research cruise to the deep ocean offshore of the Canary Islands.
The aim is to look in more detail at the deposits of previous
Canary Islands landslides in an attempt to better understand
how they move, and whether they are capable of generating
tsunamis. Dr Wynn concludes, "Only by assembling all
the facts and working together can we as scientists provide
the public with the best information on these spectacular,
but rather infrequent, natural hazards."
Dr Russell Wynn and Dr Doug Masson's research has been funded
by the Natural Environment Research Council and the European
Union. More information can be found at: http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/CHD/Research/topics/canaries_slides.html
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