Use new evidence to select a way forward for Net-Zero Framework, says Institute
The Institute is urging International Maritime Organization (IMO) member states to use its latest analysis as they work towards agreement on a Net-Zero Framework (NZF) for international shipping.
Ahead of the 22nd Intersessional Working Group on GHG Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG 22, 1-4 September 2026), the Institute has submitted a series of papers designed to support negotiations and help delegates assess the effectiveness of the measures currently under consideration to keep maritime emissions in line with the IMO’s 2023 GHG strategy.
Among the submissions is a new analysis of the proposed MARPOL Convention amendment options currently on the table at the IMO. The work evaluates each option against the emissions reduction goals set out in the IMO's 2023 GHG Strategy, creating a just and equitable transition and promoting shipping's energy transition. It also examines trade-offs between environmental performance, cost impacts and revenue generation.
The key finding is that the ‘levy-based’ framework is most likely to deliver the IMO's 2030 and 2040 emissions reduction checkpoints. This option proposes using fixed financial penalties for vessels not complying with emissions standards, and only subsidising operators using zero, or near zero, fuels and technologies.
However, the analysis also highlights that another of the options, which proposes keeping the Net-Zero framework in its current form, could offer the lowest average carbon abatement cost among the pricing-based options, provided significant increases in biofuel prices are avoided before 2038.
The analysis uses the most up-to-date modelling undertaken by University College London (UCL)'s Energy Institute Shipping and Oceans Research Group and the Rocky Mountain Institute.
Commenting on the new study, Dr Tristan Smith, Professor of Energy and Transport at UCL’s Energy Institute and head of the IMarEST IMO GHG delegation, said: “This is the first study to model the specifics of all four proposals side-by-side, building on the assumptions and methods used in the IMO's own Comprehensive Impact Assessment of mid-term measures.
“As negotiations intensify ahead of MEPC 85 at the end of the year, we are hopeful our analysis will help guide IMO member states to a workable solution for the Net-Zero Framework.”
The IMarEST's work has drawn on expertise from across the maritime sector. The submissions were led by IMarEST Fellow Professor Tristan Smith (UCL Energy Institute), with contributions from the Rocky Mountain Institute and support from the IMarEST Ship Energy and Environment Special Interest Group co-chairs Dr Thomas Beard (BMT) and Robert Farmer (Poten & Partners).
